Essay:Prospects of libertarian candidates winning

There are many possible answers to the question "What are your odds of winning?" which is frequently asked libertarian and other third-party candidates.

Conditional answers

 * "I think that if the voters hear what I have to say, they will agree with my positions and vote for me."
 * "If the media responsibly reports on my positions, then I have a great chance to win."
 * "Assuming that the political system isn't rigged against third parties and that the voters are intelligent, well-informed, rational decision-makers, who judge candidates' merits based on facts and evidence and disregard appeals to emotion and other fallacious arguments raised by demagogues, and who are motivated primarily by respect for the rights of others and a desire to further the public interest even at the sacrifice of their own selfish desires, there is no reason that I can't win."

Answers that redefine victory

 * "Given the difficulties third-party candidates face in winning office, I'll personally count my race as a 'win' if I can find new libertarians and get them ready to support our candidates next year. We Libertarians believe we're in a marathon, not a one-year sprint."

Other dodges

 * "I'm running to win, because people don't run in elections to lose."