User:Leucosticte/Virginia will be the 32nd state to legalize cannabis

I'm betting that Virginia will be the 32nd U.S. state to legalize cannabis.

Rules of the bet

• If a state that legalized cannabis bans it again and hasn't yet relegalized by the time Virginia legalizes, then for purposes of this bet it no longer counts in the ranking as a state that has legalized.
• For purposes of this bet, Washington, DC, Puerto Rico, and any jurisdictions that aren't U.S. states are ignored.
• Whoever guesses closest wins. Therefore, it would be to the benefit of the other person to bet that Virginia will be either the 31st or 33rd state to legalize cannabis.
• In the event that Virginia legalizes simultaneously with another state, the bet is cancelled since no winner can be determined.
• The money bet is payable within 30 days of Virginia legalizing.
• Federal cannabis laws are ignored for purposes of this bet.
• Any disputes regarding the interpretation of these rules will be referred to a neutral third party, viz. T.F., for adjudication.

Factors considered and not considered

Aside from my propensity for gambling, some of my reasons for placing this bet are as follows:

• I like the number 32, since it's 2⁵.
• Virginia is one of 31 states with a Republican-controlled legislature. However, Virginia's Republicans tend to be relatively moderate, and moderate Republicans will probably eventually embrace legalization.
• Virginia's governors tend to be Democratic lately. A Democratic governor would be less likely than a Republican to veto a legalization bill.
• Virginia is one of 26 states that don't allow voters to place an initiative on the ballot.
• Virginia is one of 26 states that have not yet legalized psychoactive medical cannabis.
• Virginia is one of 32 states that have not yet decriminalized cannabis.
• Virginia is one of 46 states that have not yet legalized recreational cannabis.

Factors considered

I'm assuming that states that already have medical cannabis and decriminalized cannabis will legalize before Virginia. I'm also assuming that states with a Democratic legislature will legalize before Virginia, especially if they also have a Democratic governor. I'm assuming that states that either made or almost made the list of states that will legalize last will legalize after Virginia. I'm also assuming that states with both a Republican legislature and Republican governor are more hardcore Republican than Virginia and therefore will likely legalize after Virginia.

Factors not considered

If a state has only decriminalized, I don't take that into consideration since those laws were usually passed in the 1970s. If a state only has medical cannabis, I don't take that into consideration either because we have medical oxycontin too, but it's nowhere close to being legalized for recreational use. I also don't give much consideration to whether a state's voters have initiative power, since if they haven't used it to legalize medical cannabis and decriminalize pot yet, there's probably some reason why, such as a conservative-leaning electorate.

Table of which states I think will legalize before or after Virginia

When one looks at this table, it actually seems that Virginia would be the 26th state, at the latest, to legalize cannabis. But I just like the number 32 so much that I'm choosing it anyway. Besides, some of these states, I kinda have my doubts about. For example, Ohio is pretty hemp-friendly and has decriminalized pot, plus it has an initiative process, so it might legalize before Virginia. Also, the Democratic vs. Republican political landscape is ever-shifting, sometimes based on voters' desire for change after one party has been in power for a long time, or because one party put forward particularly weak candidates. Also, it's kinda irrelevant whether a state has both a Republican governor and legislature, or just a Republican legislature, because it only takes one or the other to block legalization. Also, although cannabis debates in the Virginia legislature have usually been decided on a party-line basis, the politics in other states don't necessarily work that way.

State	Before/after Virginia	Comments
Colorado	Before	Already legalized
Washington	Before	Already legalized
Alaska	Before	Already legalized
Oregon	Before	Already legalized
California	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Connecticut	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Maine	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Massachusetts	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Minnesota	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Nevada	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
New York	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Rhode Island	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Vermont	Before	Already has both medical and decriminalization laws
Delaware	Before	Has a Democratic governor and legislature
Hawaii	Before	Has a Democratic governor and legislature
Maryland	Before	Has a Democratic legislature
New Jersey	Before	Has a Democratic legislature
Virginia
Arizona	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Florida	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Georgia	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Indiana	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Michigan	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
North Carolina	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Ohio	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Tennessee	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Texas	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Wisconsin	After	Has a Republican governor and legislature
Arkansas	After	Almost made the list of states that will legalize last
Mississippi	After	Almost made the list of states that will legalize last
Montana	After	Almost made the list of states that will legalize last
Nebraska	After	Almost made the list of states that will legalize last
Wyoming	After	Almost made the list of states that will legalize last
Alabama	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
Idaho	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
Kansas	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
Louisiana	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
North Dakota	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
Oklahoma	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
South Carolina	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
South Dakota	After	On the list of states that will legalize last
Utah	After	On the list of states that will legalize last

See also

• wikipedia:List of United States state legislatures